Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

No price level tests occurred during the second half of the day.

The USD/JPY pair reacted unexpectedly to the minutes of the November Federal Reserve meeting. The yen was the only currency that maintained its strength against the US dollar, even though some Federal Reserve officials hinted at the possibility of pausing rate cuts and holding borrowing costs at restrictive levels as long as necessary to combat high inflation. Notably, risks to the US economy may force the Federal Reserve to act more decisively. If labor market data begins to show signs of weakness, softer measures may need to be discussed.

The renewed pressure on the USD/JPY pair reflects growing market speculation about an interest rate hike in Japan in the near future. Given improving economic indicators and the international context, investors are increasingly confident that the Bank of Japan may adjust its monetary policy, potentially making such changes early next year. The anticipated rate hike is also influenced by broader international conditions. Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Scenarios for Buying

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 152.84 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to the 154.34 level (thicker green line on the chart). At 154.34, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30–35 points downward from that level. Given the downward trend, it is advisable to exercise caution when buying.Important: It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it before buying.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 152.15 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This setup will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the levels of 152.84 and 154.34 can be expected.

Scenarios for Selling

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below the 152.15 level (red line on the chart), which is likely to lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 150.84 level, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 20–25 points upward from that level. Selling pressure on the pair may persist during the first half of the day.Important: It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it before selling.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 154.84 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This setup will limit the pair's upward potential and result in a reversal downward. A decline toward the levels of 152.15 and 150.84 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: Projected price for setting Take Profit or locking in profits manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: Projected price for setting Take Profit or locking in profits manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: It is important to consider overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

Beginner forex traders must exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Successful trading requires a clear plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is generally ineffective for intraday traders.