empty
08.04.2025 07:51 PM
EUR/USD Analysis - April 8th

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has transformed into a bullish one. I believe there is little doubt that this transformation is entirely due to the new U.S. trade policy. Until February 28, when the U.S. dollar began its sharp decline, the entire wave structure looked like a convincing bearish trend segment. A corrective wave 2 was forming. However, weekly statements from Donald Trump about new tariffs had their effect. Demand for the U.S. dollar started to fall rapidly, and now the entire trend segment that began on January 13 has taken on a five-wave impulsive structure.

Based on this, we should now expect the formation of corrective wave 2 of the new upward trend segment, which may consist of three waves. After that, the U.S. dollar is likely to continue its decline — unless Donald Trump makes a complete U-turn on his trade policy. This is a clear example of how the news backdrop can change a wave pattern.

The EUR/USD pair saw little movement on Tuesday heading into the U.S. session, although the intraday range could hardly be described as "narrow." The market is slowly stabilizing and realizing that another "battle" has taken place, and now it's time for a "breather." Thus, we may indeed see a couple of quiet days in the market, but I don't believe anyone seriously expects an end to the trade war escalation or a complete reversal in the U.S. trade policy direction.

Yesterday and today, the markets have been actively discussing the EU's countermeasures — not just the markets, but also European politicians. Initially, a tariff package worth 28 billion dollars was proposed, but it quickly seemed laughable, considering Trump imposed tariffs on European goods totaling half a trillion dollars. EU losses could amount to around 100 billion dollars. Later, the European Commission began discussing a more "mirror-like" response. The EU government is now proposing 25% tariffs on all imports from the U.S. Brussels is also willing to compromise, offering mutual zero tariffs on all industrial goods. However, Trump's stance remains firm: the EU was created to rob America and owes it a lot of money. Therefore, according to him, either the EU will pay, or there will be a trade war. It's worth noting that Europe doesn't seem to believe much in the success of negotiations with Trump. Meanwhile, the U.S. president is already threatening additional tariffs if Brussels retaliates. In other words, the story isn't over yet, and it's too early to relax.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

Based on the conducted EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair has started forming a new upward trend segment. The only serious concern is Donald Trump. If his actions could reverse one trend, they could easily reverse another. Therefore, in the near term, wave structure will depend entirely on the U.S. president's stance and actions. This must be kept in mind constantly. Based solely on the wave pattern, a corrective wave set — typically three waves — is now expected. After that, a new bullish wave is likely, and traders should look for long entry opportunities with targets well above the 1.10 level.

On the higher wave scale, it's evident that the wave pattern has turned bullish. A long-term upward wave sequence is likely ahead, but Trump's news flow alone could still flip the market upside down once again.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to work with and are prone to changes.
  2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
  3. One can never be 100% certain about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD Analysis on April 21, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has transformed into a bullish formation. I believe there's little doubt that this transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S

Chin Zhao 19:46 2025-04-21 UTC+2

GBP/USD Analysis on April 21, 2025

The wave structure for GBP/USD has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive formation—"thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave picture is nearly identical to that of EUR/USD. Up until February

Chin Zhao 19:44 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Weekly Forecast Based on Simplified Wave Analysis for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, and the US Dollar Index — April 21st

GBP/USD Analysis: Since the beginning of this year, GBP/USD has been forming an upward wave on the daily chart. The pair has now reached the boundaries of a wide potential

Isabel Clark 09:31 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Weekly Forecast Based on Simplified Wave Analysis for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, and Gold – April 21st

Analysis:Since February, EUR/USD has been forming an upward wave, with the final part (C) currently in progress. Recently, the pair pushed through the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal

Isabel Clark 09:25 2025-04-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis on April 17, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has shifted into a bullish impulse formation. I believe there's no doubt this transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade

Chin Zhao 19:12 2025-04-17 UTC+2

GBP/USD Analysis on April 17, 2025

The GBP/USD pair remained unchanged on Thursday. While such market behavior might have been expected for Thursday, it was surprising not to see a decline on Wednesday, given the number

Chin Zhao 19:09 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Analysis for EUR/USD on April 16, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair has shifted into a bullish formation. I think there's little doubt that this transformation was caused solely

Chin Zhao 18:56 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Analysis for GBP/USD on April 16, 2025

The wave structure of the GBP/USD pair has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive formation — "thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave pattern is almost identical to that of EUR/USD

Chin Zhao 18:53 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Analysis for EUR/USD on April 15, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has shifted into a bullish formation. I believe there's little doubt that this transformation is entirely due to the new U.S

Chin Zhao 19:03 2025-04-15 UTC+2

Analysis for GBP/USD on April 15, 2025

The wave structure for GBP/USD has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive formation — "thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave pattern is almost identical to that of EUR/USD. Until February

Chin Zhao 18:56 2025-04-15 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.