empty
21.12.2023 01:12 PM
Forecast for EUR/USD on December 21, 2021

The EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, consolidating below the corrective level of 61.8% (1.0960). Thus, the downward process may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.0862). I support the scenario of further decline in the pair, as, judging by the waves, the trend seems to be shifting towards the "bearish" side. However, a firm hold above the level of 1.0960 will indicate that bulls are not ready to retreat fully and may attempt to resume growth towards the level of 1.1035.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation is becoming clearer and more favorable. The last downward wave turned out to be relatively weak (compared to the previous upward wave), and the current upward wave has every chance of not surpassing the peak of the previous wave (from December 14). If this scenario unfolds, we will have the first sign of completing the "bullish" trend. In this case, a decline towards the level of 1.0862 should begin, which may only be the start of a prolonged "bearish" trend. This is the scenario I am currently counting on.

On Wednesday, there were a few interesting events in the European Union and the United States. The only U.S. report on the number of new home sales showed a value slightly higher than traders expected for November. However, this report is unimportant, and traders' reactions were practically nonexistent. Thus, this week, I can highlight only two events. The first one is the inflation report in the European Union, which showed a final decrease in November to 2.4% y/y, and the U.S. GDP report for the third quarter, which will be released today in the second half of the day.

As with European inflation, the report on economic growth in the U.S. may not cause a strong reaction. This is not the first estimate of the indicator for the third quarter, and traders are prepared to see +5.2% q/q. If today's report shows a higher or lower value, then bulls or bears will receive minor support. But overall, this week's information background is quite weak, with important reports coming only from the United Kingdom. By the end of the week, trader activity may be relatively low, but I still expect a decline in the pair toward the level of 1.0862. This target already looks quite attractive.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.0957). A firm consolidation of the pair's rate above this level allows counting on further growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.1032. Reconsolidation below 1.0957 will again favor the U.S. currency and a fall to the lower line of the ascending trend corridor, which still characterizes traders' sentiment as "bullish." I expect a significant decline in the euro only after consolidating below the ascending trend corridor. Still, even under the current circumstances, a decline towards the lower line of the corridor looks promising. There are no apparent divergences with any indicator today.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trader advice:

What advice can be given to traders today? The rise of the European currency is unlikely. The continuation of the "bullish" trend is also unlikely. The information background could be stronger; the economic events calendar for the EU and the U.S. is practically empty, and traders will find it difficult to find new reasons for buying. Thus, a resumption of the decline towards the level of 1.0862 is likely. A consolidation below the level of 1.0960 can be considered for selling the pair. I consider purchases today impractical and too risky."

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for March 26-28, 2025: sell below 1.0808 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

According to the H4 chart, the euro appears oversold, and we believe that if EUR/USD finds strong support around the 8/8 Murray level at 1.0742 or 1.0690, it will

Dimitrios Zappas 15:13 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for March 26-28, 2025: sell below $3,034 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

Gold could continue its bearish cycle in the coming days. To confirm the downtrend, we should expect consolidation below 3,020, then the price could reach the 6/8 Murray at 2,968

Dimitrios Zappas 15:11 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Forex forecast 26/03/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 10:35 2025-03-26 UTC+2

EUR/USD. March 26th. Bears Preparing for a New Attack

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair once again rebounded from the support zone of 1.0781–1.0797, but the bulls showed weakness due to the lack of a supportive news background. Today

Samir Klishi 10:32 2025-03-26 UTC+2

GBP/USD. March 26th. Inflation May Move the Pound

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to trade sideways on Tuesday, showing no reaction to the 1.2931 level. Therefore, a new close above or below this level will

Samir Klishi 10:29 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of AUD/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Wednesday March 26, 2025.

It can be seen on the 4-hour chart that the AUD/JPY cross currency pair is moving in a Bullish channel harmoniously and is above the EMA (21) which also

Arief Makmur 09:34 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index,Wednesday March 26, 2025.

20405.7 With the appearance of Convergence between the Nasdaq 100 index price movement and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator and the price movement of the index moving above the EMA (21)

Arief Makmur 09:34 2025-03-26 UTC+2

EUR/USD and GBP/USD March 26 – Technical Analysis

As the week begins, bearish players are trying to confirm and extend the prevailing downtrend, but they have yet to achieve strong results — The pair continues to stay close

Evangelos Poulakis 04:26 2025-03-26 UTC+2

EUR/USD. March 25th. A Dull Week Ahead

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 200.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0857, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and declined toward the support zone of 1.0781–1.0797

Samir Klishi 18:04 2025-03-25 UTC+2

GBP/USD. March 25th. The Pound Moves Into a Sideways Range

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair consolidated above the 1.2931 level on Monday, but the bulls failed to sustain the upward move and retreated. The pair subsequently moved back

Samir Klishi 17:58 2025-03-25 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.