Analysis of Tuesday's Trades

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair showed little movement on Tuesday, which was essentially a semi-holiday. Trading officially closed in the evening due to the holiday observed yesterday in many countries, including those in the Eurozone and the United States, in celebration of Christmas. The market appears to have entered a festive period, during which volatility may be very low, although traders might also experience sharp and unexpected price swings. We believe that trying to capitalize on such swings is not worthwhile. Additionally, there are no significant reports or events scheduled for this week.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were generated on Tuesday. The price did not approach any key levels and traded sideways all day with low volatility. This flat movement continued into Thursday.

Trading Strategy for Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has been trading within a horizontal channel for nearly three weeks. However, the results of the Federal Reserve meeting triggered a strong market reaction, breaking this flat pattern. We believe that the decline of the euro has now resumed. During the holiday weeks, the market may enter a new flat phase or experience a correction, but the price is still expected to return to the 1.0334–1.0359 range.

On Thursday, the pair may continue its decline toward the 1.0334–1.0359 area, which remains a key support zone. However, we cannot rule out the possibility of continued flat trading or very low volatility.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.0269–1.0277, 1.0334–1.0359, 1.0433–1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726–1.0733, 1.0797–1.0804, 1.0845–1.0851, and 1.0888–1.0896. Additionally, no significant events are scheduled in the Eurozone or the U.S. for Thursday and Friday.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.